The rain in Spain

Sometimes it does rain in Spain. The Spanish situation can be basically described as being caught between a rock and a hard place. Either way they turn the country is going to have to go through some deep fiscal and structural reforms. They got to decide whether they want to do that on their own or in the Euro currency. Ultimately I think the Spaniards aren’t the worst poker players as they are playing the man and not their hand. They in a desperate situation but they know their size and importance in Europe cannot be underestimated and hoping to get themselves a decent deal in the end. However the other whale at the table is Germany. At some point (probably another month or two) both players are going to have to go all in and show their cards, a split pot is the most likely outcome given the nature of these deals in the Eurozone (give a little, take a little) and Spain will stay in the Euro, but the only smiles you will see will be from the sunburnt tourists in “Marbs.”

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