UK GDP surprises to the upside

Quick one here, but UK GDP printed a 1% gain on the quarter versus expectations of .6% growth. A positive surprise which was rumoured to be the case yesterday but still came in higher.

I’m not trying to pour cold water on this as a beat is a beat but there is the rather obvious benefit of one-off’s in there. A very busy summer in terms of sporting events and the Diamond jubilee certainly would have had an impact on these numbers. The article refers to .2% gain from the Olympics and its seems rather harder to quantify the benefits of the jubilee.

Overall though I dont think anyone will get carried away with this print apart from the obvious characters like George Osbourne and his cronies in an attempt at deflection and positive spin. Technically it lifts the UK out of a recession as can be seen from the graph below, but the next quarters print and data from now going forward like PMI, Industrial production and retail sales will give better idea if this print is sustainable. Its all well and good if beer and food sales were higher during the summer than normal but 3 months does not make an economy.

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