US go to the polls and surprise from the RBA

The day is upon us and we should know by the early morning who is likely to be the next commander in chief. I wont discuss it too much as all media channels should be suitably engrossed with for you to get your fill. The only thing I am watching with interest is the reaction of Gold price and the US dollar. An Obama win should see some relief to the recent weakness in gold and therefore the inverse move in the USD, and a Romney win should see further weakness in gold as he has stated his intentions regarding the future of Ben Bernanke and his continuing employment by the FED due to his QE policies.

Elsewhere in a surprise move the central bank of Australia left rates on hold @ 3.25%. Most economists and commentators were predicting a small cut of 25bps to the rate but it seems the RBA went on the side of caution and due to some pick up in inflation (attributed to energy prices) saw no need to cut rates further with a wait and see approach. Also their has been some slightly better data coming from China and the US of late. Travel saw one of the bigger pick ups in inflation and why wouldn’t it with Australian travellers revelling in a strong AUD, but not so good for exporters. Experts still believe there will be a cut between now and late 2013 but the RBA are certainly keeping them on their toes at the moment.

In Euroland everyone’s favourite PM senor Rajoy was on the wires this morning making some rather dubious comments about the state of the nation. He is talking about a pick up in 2013 and hoping to cut taxes in 2014. Ludicrous comments really and don’t warrant much discussion. He did mention that if financing costs were to rise sharply they would ask for bailout and while this is the situation all along I would advise Mr. Rajoy not to taunt or goad the market into forcing his hand.

Other than that it is a case of watching and waiting for the outcome in the US to see where we go from here.


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